WASHINGTON (Reuters) – US President Donald Trump’s trade war with China has caused a maximum loss of 245,000 US jobs, but a gradual cut in tariffs on both sides would spur growth and lead to 145,000 new ones. jobs by 2025, a study commissioned by the US-China Business Council (USCBC) shows.
The group, which represents major American companies doing business in China, said the Oxford Economics study also includes an “escalation scenario” that estimates a significant decoupling of the world’s two largest economies could reduce US GDP by $ 1.6 trillion over the next five years. This could mean 732,000 fewer US jobs in 2022 and 320,000 fewer jobs by 2025, he said.
The study was published just days before President-elect Joe Biden took office and began a major analysis of U.S. trade policy, including consultations with Democratic allies on the punitive U.S. tariffs imposed by Trump. Biden said he does not foresee immediate changes to Trump’s tariffs, but said he will work with allies to pressure China to change its trading behavior.
USCBC President Craig Allen, who supported Trump’s efforts to change China’s trade and technology transfer policies, said it was important for the group to articulate the consequences of policy choices in US-China relations.
“In the case of tariffs, it is very important that we understand the full economic cost of these choices,” Allen said at a news conference.
The study estimates that US exports to China support 1.2 million American jobs and that Chinese multinational companies directly employ 197,000 Americans, while US companies invested $ 105 billion in China in 2019.
“With China expecting to lead about a third of global growth over the next decade, maintaining access to the Chinese market is increasingly essential to the global success of US companies,” the study said.
Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Toby Chopra