Don Paul: Winter and the lake effect get to work this week | Forecasts

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By Friday, several models develop a deeper storm system just off the coast. It appears it will be too far to the east to bring much, if any, synoptic snow back to Western New York, but it will bear watching.

This GFS estimate is the highest, currently. It’s safe to say there is real lake-effect potential for heavier amounts near the metro area, but the situation is not a lock.


  • Temperatures will moderate from Friday’s low 20s to the low 30s on Saturday and to near 40 on Sunday, ahead of another sharp cold front, with readings plummeting again Sunday night into early next week. Early hints point to a northwesterly flow behind the Sunday cold front, which would mean less lake-effect impact in WNY. In any case, ski resorts will be able to build on their bases with some real augmentation from nature possible later Thursday and next Sunday night and Monday.